Thursday July 3rd 2008

Dow Will Sink Below 10,000: Strategist
By CNBC.com
Investors should ignore recent signs of strength and face up to the fact that we will face a prolonged bear market, John Carter, president of Trade The Markets, told CNBC Wednesday."Longer term we’re looking at a market that is a bear market," Carter told "Squawk Box Europe."While we can expect a rally over the next three to five weeks, this is a downward spiral that is not going away any time soon, he said."A trend is a trend until it ends, and we’re actually looking for the Dow to take out 10,000 by the end of the year," he added.There are too few sectors holding the markets up, and too many dragging it down, to consider getting back into non-recession-proof sectors, according to Carter.

Analysts prepare for summer gold rush
This summer as investors seek out alternatives to falling confidence in the economy, and the strong investment demand may couple with physical demand in Q4 to lift prices back into record territory, gold will remain an attractive target for investment, analysts said.“The gold market in the past has been seasonal, with the rule being 'sell in May and go away,” said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com.The seasonal pattern usually meant that gold would see a lull in demand beginning in May and lasting until the middle to the end of August, with main demand appearing in the final quarter of the year and lasting until the end of May, he said.Emerging markets equities may rebound in H2 of the year as investors take advantage of buying opportunities in battered markets, but soaring inflation and volatility will likely make for a rough ride.

Gold Price Triples
Gold is likely to regain $1,000 per ounce by the end of 2008 and to work higher through 2009-2010, Citigroup has forecasted.In its recent Gold Commodity Update, Citigroup metals analysts, John H. Hill and Graham Wark also predicted that “gold is capable of doubling or tripling from current levels.”The analysts said “secular and seasonal factors favor gold” during the second half of this year.“We remain positive on gold, based on macro and supply/demand factors. The forces that have propelled gold for 5 years are firmly in place,” they stated.During the second quarter of this year, gold has averaged $896 per ounce, up 34 percent from the same quarter of 2007 and down 3 percent from the first quarter of this year.

They dare not speak its name
By Antal E Fekete
I am forced to announce that after November, Gold Standard University Live will fold tent as its sponsor, Sprott Asset Management, Inc, has withdrawn its financial support in spite of an increase on average of 50% since the inaugural session in February, 2007. Eric Sprott said in his letter that "we weren't attracting enough interest to justify that ongoing expenditure". To give you an idea of the odds I am facing, let me quote from the article in Wikipedia (June 9, 2008) captioned under my name: "It should be noted that mainstream economic theorists criticize gold standard-oriented monetary economists and monetary reformers such as Professor Fekete as 'fringe' or 'amateur' economists, not worthy of serious study.

USDollar on Edge, Gold on Verge
Jim Willie CB
The USDollar is on the edge of the chasm again. The nonsense has been cast aside about a bank recovery, a housing stabilization, and an economy that can withstand a spillover. How incredible it is to see grown adults accept such marketing and promotional drivel. Wake up and smell the blood! The US financial and economic system has never been so vulnerable in almost a century. What we see now is far more dangerous than the 1970 decade, characterized by vast cost shocks.

Miners' union will use strike to send 'strong message'
South Africa's biggest miners' union said on Wednesday it would down tools on August 6 in a national strike that could halt production.The strike has been called by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) to protest job losses linked to the country's power crisis, the soaring prices of food, fuel and interest rates.The 320 000-strong National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), the biggest affiliate of Cosatu among other trade unions, has vowed to support the strike in what may be a major showdown between unions and the authorities over the state of the economy.

U.S. envoy in Israel plays down plans to attack Iran
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The U.S. ambassador to Israel was on Thursday quoted as playing down speculation that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites by either country was imminent, saying that the allies agreed force should remain a last resort."I don't think any decisions have been made to attack Iran in the near future," YNet, an Israeli news Web site in Hebrew, quoted Richard Jones as saying."Use of military force is a last option and Israel and the United States are cooperating on this matter."

U.S. army chief: Israeli strike on Iran would destabilize Mideast
An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would be a high-risk move that could destabilize the Middle East, the top U.S. military officer said Wednesday.
At a Defense Department news conference, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refused to say what Israeli leaders told him during meetings last week about any intentions to strike Iran.But asked whether he was concerned Israel would strike before the end of the year, he said: "This is a very unstable part of the world and I don't need it to be more unstable."The U.S. military is severely strained already by wars on two fronts - the nearly seven-year-old campaign in Afghanistan and more than five years in Iraq.

World oil market fears terror attack in Saudi Arabia
An attack -- or even an attempted attack -- by Islamic extremists on Saudi Arabia's oil sector would have disastrous consequences on the world market and the price per barrel, analysts warn.Of more than 700 people arrested in the course of the last six months in Saudi Arabia, dozens had been part of cells charged with preparing attacks against oil sites, according to authorities in Riyadh.With the price per barrel rising constantly and the capacity to increase global production almost non-existent, apart from in Saudi Arabia, the world market has never been so vulnerable to an offensive by Jihadists in the kingdom, they said.

Increased Oil Production Won’t Solve the Energy Crisis
By Dan Denning
Many of the problems we confront today come from 100 years of fixed capital investment in getting our fuel mostly from one source: petroleum. Where we live and work and how we get between the two places is all based on internal combustion engines burning petrol refined from crude oil.Yet there are many other uses for oil-plastics for example. If we try to solve the energy problem with increased oil production, we'll just buy ourselves some more time. But eventually, demand will exceed supply, or prices will rise so high that an economy based on cheap energy will perish from the earth.

Congress's 'Virtual Iran War Resolution'
by Ron Paul
Statement on House Congressional Resolution 362 before the US House of Representatives, June 28, 2008
Today the Dow Jones Average was down 350-some points, gold was up $32, and oil was up another $5. There is a lot of chaos out there and everyone is worried about $4 gasoline. But I don't think there is a clear understanding [of] exactly why that has occurred.We do know that there is a supply and demand issue, but there are other reasons for the high cost of energy. One is inflation. In order to pay for the war that has been going on, and the domestic spending, we've been spending a lot more money than we have. So what do we do?

U.S State Dept. role in Iraq oil deal questioned
By James Glanz and Richard A. Oppel Jr.
Bush administration officials knew that a Texas oil company with close ties to President George W. Bush was planning to sign an oil deal with the regional Kurdistan government that runs counter to American policy and undercut Iraq's central government, a congressional committee has concluded.The conclusions were based on e-mail messages and other documents that the committee released Wednesday.United States policy is to warn companies that they incur risks in signing contracts until Iraq passes an oil law and to strengthen Iraq's central government.

Bank deputy chief warns of market trouble to come
By Ben Russell, Political Correspondent and Sean O'Grady
Britain is facing the risk of renewed turmoil in the financial markets, the new deputy governor of the Bank of England warned yesterday. Professor Charlie Bean, the deputy governor for monetary policy and a former chief economist at the Bank, raised the prospect of a slowing global economy triggering a new round of problems with corporate loans and said that the impact of the credit squeeze could be greater than Bank projections.He told members of the Commons Treasury Select Committee that Britain faced "major conflicting risks" threatening the Government's inflation target from the problems of a slowing economy and rising commodity prices.

Henry Paulson admits inflation is world's biggest worry
Dearbail Jordan
US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, said inflation is now the top priority for a number of global economies as soaring food and fuel prices continue to inflate on the cost of living.Mr Paulson was speaking to the BBC on the eve of a meeting today, alongside Chancellor Alistair Darling, with over 40 British business leaders to discuss the UK economy.The US Treasury Secretary said: “When you look around the world broadly, I think inflation is the issue that, as I go around the world, is getting the number one focus.

Paulson Seeks a System to Handle Orderly Failure of Financial Firms
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. highlights the need for a formal procedure that allows large, nonbank financial institutions to fail without wreaking havoc on the broader financial markets and the U.S. economy.Taking aim at the mindset that some financial institutions are too big to fail, Mr. Paulson said Wall Street can't expect the government to step in and lend money or support every time there is a crisis. That perception exists, he said in a speech in London, because the government is limited in its ability to help unwind the complicated trading relations, debts and obligations of a financial firm, which if unwound all at once could ripple throughout the financial system.

More bats and a bigger budget
By The Mogambo Guru
Many Junior Mogambo Rangers (JMRs) were correctly upset at the Washington Post story that bore the headline "Paulson To Urge New Fed Powers". The poop is (and you will soon see why I use that particular noun) that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is calling "for the Federal Reserve to be given new, explicit powers to intervene in the workings of Wall Street firms".To show you what an unimaginative dork Mr Paulson is (which is almost the same thing I have been saying for years), give The Mogambo "new, explicit powers to intervene in the workings of Wall Street firms, the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Supreme Court, and let me go stomping in there any time I want, wielding a baseball bat in my Mighty Mogambo Fist Of Vengeance (MMFOV) and start imparting some monetary and constitutional sense to those morons

U.S. is in no shape to give advice, Medvedev says
By Clifford J. Levy
MOSCOW: Russia's new president, Dmitri Medvedev, less swaggering than his predecessor but as touchy about criticism from abroad, said in an interview that an America in "essentially a depression" was in no position to lecture other countries on how to conduct their affairs. With soaring oil revenues bolstering the Russian economy and Kremlin confidence, Medvedev brushed aside American criticism of his country's record on democracy and human rights. He also said that a revived Russia had a right to assume a larger role in a world economic system that he suggested should no longer be dominated by the United States.

Bush's Dollar Drop Maps Loss of U.S. Clout at Final G-8 Summit
When President George W. Bush went to his first Group of Eight summit in 2001, a dominant issue was the dollar -- the strong dollar, that is. The U.S. currency was on a record-setting streak, and the free-marketeering president wasn't going to stand in the way.On the eve of Bush's last G-8 appearance, the dollar's gyrations are again in the crossfire. This time, it is a weak currency, upended by slumping growth, a housing recession and record gas prices, that is gnawing away at the world economy.The dollar's 41 percent drop against the euro during Bush's term writes the economic epitaph of an administration that set out to restore American preeminence. Instead, Bush heads to Japan next week for his final international summit with diminished leverage as Russian and Chinese influence grows.

Judge clears U.S. request for UBS clients' names
By Lynnley Browning and Julia Werdigier
A U.S. judge cleared the way on Tuesday for prosecutors to force the Swiss banking giant UBS to turn over the names of wealthy clients as part of an investigation of its offshore private banking practices.An order signed by Judge Joan A. Lenard of U.S. District Court in Miami gives investigators the authority to request the information from UBS. A spokesman for the Internal Revenue Service said the agency, which was working with U.S. prosecutors, was expected to serve UBS with a summons for names within several days. The bank can either turn the names over — an unprecedented move for a Swiss bank under secrecy laws — or appeal the judge's ruling.

A run for your money
THE SAVAGE TRUTH | Thinking of giving up your citizenship and leaving the U.S. to avoid taxes? Well, the government already has considered rebellious Americans and has passed a law that would stop a big chunk of your money from crossing the border As we approach the July 4th holiday that inspires our most patriotic thoughts, it's hard to imagine that any American would voluntarily give up his or her citizenship. But perhaps the politicians are starting to understand that the taxpaying public is growing wary of being fleeced, either through increased taxes or the stealth tax of inflation, as a way to repay all the debt that Washington has incurred.

The right's game-playing with "dual loyalty" and "anti-Semitism" accusations
As our political establishment takes new and disturbing steps towards a more confrontational approach with Iran, the effort to stomp out any discussion of the role Israel plays in that policy has once again intensified. Last week, Joe Klein -- basically out of the blue -- observed that while many advocates of an attack on Iraq (which once included Klein) were motivated by "neocolonial" fantasies or ensuring access to Iraq's oil, many other war proponents were motivated by their allegiance to Israel:

CUFI Speaker Walid Shoebat: `666` is `In the Name of Allah`
By Richard Bartholomew - Talk2Action
When Joe Lieberman gives credibility to the upcoming Christians United for Israel with his attendance, he won't just be lending his reputation to conspiracy-monger John Hagee. Also on the CUFI line-up is Walid Shoebat, the self-proclaimed former Palestinian Muslim terrorist-turned evangelist. Various sources have challenged Shoebat's account of his former terrorism, with the Jerusalem Post in particular raising questions about his story that so far have not been answered.Shoebat also fancies himself as a bit of a Biblical scholar and palaeographer, and in a video clip that I have just been made aware of he expounds his theory that the "Number of the Beast" mentioned in the Book of Revelation is in fact a reference to...Allah.

Did Baptists Influence Thomas Jefferson?
Don Boys, Ph.D. - Baptist people have been the most principled people since the time of Christ. I do not believe that the designation of “Baptist� is nearly as important as the doctrine, but I want people to know where I stand. I am a Baptist, and am proud of my heritage that has made an incredible impact on this world—even Jefferson and the U.S. Constitution! Baptists have stood for the free exercise of a person's will and against oppression (religious or political) down through the ages.The English historian, Skeats wrote, 'It is the singular and distinguished honor of the Baptists to have repudiated from their earliest history all coercive power over the consciences and actions of men with reference to religion.

The Necessary War
by William S. Lind
Pat Buchanan’s new book, Churchill, Hitler, and the Unnecessary War: How Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost the World, is causing a stir, which is a good thing. Buchanan argues that both World War I and World War II were unnecessary wars; that Britain bears at least as much responsibility for both as Germany; that Winston Churchill was "the indispensable man" in reducing Britain from a world-encircling empire to "a cottage by the sea – to live out her declining years;" and that the consequence of the Western civil war that encompassed both World Wars (I would add the Cold War as well) has been the fall of the West.

Learning from Past Disasters, Preventing Future Ones
by Daniel Ellsberg
This is a forward to the book Flirting with Disaster: Why Accidents Are Rarely Accidental by Marc S. Gerstein
I have participated in several major organizational catastrophes. The most well known of them is the Vietnam War. I was aware on my first visit to Vietnam in 1961 that the situation there – a failing neocolonial regime we had installed as a successor to French rule – was a sure loser in which we should not become further involved. Yet a few years later, I found myself participating as a high-level staffer in a policy process that lied both the public and Congress into a war that, unbeknownst to me at the time, experts inside the government accurately predicted would lead to catastrophe.

Nat Hentoff: Robert Mugabe, "the Hitler of Africa"
Voting early on the morning of Election Day in Zimbabwe, the only candidate, Robert Mugabe, smiling broadly, said he was "happy and hungry for victory." In his wake are the corpses of at least 80 members of the Movement for Democratic Change and thousands of tortured and beaten opposition Zimbabweans. Among them — seen on the front page of the June 26 New York Times — is an 11-month-old boy whose legs were shattered by the "Green Bombers," Mugabe's youth militia.Following Mugabe's Stalinesque triumph, the U.N. Security Council expressed "deep regrets" that the election was conducted "in these circumstances."

'Living in a city under siege'
Mugabe seems intent on starting his last war - one against his own people, writes Walter Marwizi in Harare.
SOUND SLEEP is nearly impossible in my suburb these days.For the past three weeks, young people have been singing all night just a few steps from my home. It is winter here, but that has not deterred them from camping in the open, wearing only shorts and blue-and-white shirts bearing the image of a fist-waving President Robert Mugabe.They chant chilling slogans that remind people of the pre-independence bush war, which resulted in some 30,000 deaths. One particularly popular refrain, especially in the dead of night, is: "Win or war, win or war!" They also go door-to-door denouncing opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

The shame of a Mugabe torturer: 'I am being forced to kill someone'
By Daniel Howden in Harare
He has whipped strangers with barbed wire and hit them with iron bars. He has stood by while old men were beaten half to death, as he chanted songs glorifying the violence.Gibson became one of Robert Mugabe's foot soldiers when the 84-year-old President turned an election into a guerrilla war. He is one of thousands of members of the armed youth militias who have turned on their own people in a vicious campaign of looting, torture and murder.

Robert Mugabe's regime may run out of money
By Louis Weston in Harare and Harry de Quetteville in Berlin
The printing presses which produce reams of worthless banknotes in Zimbabwe may soon fall silent after a German company stopped supplying paper. Giesecke and Devrient, based in Munich, said it would no longer deliver watermarked paper to President Robert Mugabe’s Reserve Bank. This was due to “the critical evaluation by the international community, German government and general public” of the political situation in Zimbabwe.Facing an spiralling economic crisis, Mr Mugabe’s bankrupt regime must print money in order to pay its bills. This has sent inflation rising above two million per cent and wiped out the value of the Zimbabwe Dollar.

Why is Zimbabwe still afloat? China
How has Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe managed to avert a complete state collapse thus far?
His disillusioned citizens are facing a new wave of price increases that will put the most basic of food essentials even further out of their reach. On the streets of Harare, a loaf of bread costs the equivalent of what a dozen new cars would have cost a decade ago (when factoring current consumer price indicators and inflation figures). With public wages largely unchanged, as many as three million Zimbabweans have been forced to take up menial jobs in neighbouring South Africa to support their families.

Mbeki's shame
By Roger Cohen
NEW YORK: Sometimes stubbornness gets measured in blood, and sometimes the wounds of race are blinding.
That's the kindest verdict I can find for the listless mediation in a devastated Zimbabwe of Thabo Mbeki, the South African president. Faced by all the brutal expressions of his neighbor Robert Mugabe's megalomania, Mbeki has prodded here and there, like a learned physician mildly intrigued by a corpse.As a once flourishing economy has imploded, as inflation has assumed Weimar proportions, as millions have fled to South Africa, and as an octogenarian tyrant has dispatched goons to murder and ravage, Mbeki has gone on mumbling that the people of Zimbabwe must solve their own problems.

Blacks prey on Hispanics
By JENNIFER MILLER, Staff Writer
The Coatesville Police Department continues to receive reports of black city residents robbing, assaulting and raping Hispanic immigrants, according to Police Chief William Matthews.And, if the activity is not stopped, police say it could trigger the formation of violent Hispanic gangs as a type of cultural protection.With the city's black community, growing immigrant population - many of whom do not speak English - combined with the city's social issues, "It's not long before you have black-on-brown crime," said Matthews. "And we're seeing the beginning of that."Matthews, who first spoke publicly about the problem last fall, spoke candidly on the issue Thursday during a community crime meeting.

New drive to ban race preferences
Initiatives in three states would prohibit affirmative action in public realms.
By Stacy Teicher Khadaroo
Reporter Stacy Teicher Khadaroo discusses ballot initiatives in several states that attempt to ban preferential treatment in public education, hiring, and contracting.Tensions are running high in the latest affirmative-action battlegrounds. In Arizona, Nebraska, and Colorado, supporters of ballot initiatives that would ban "preferential treatment" are counting up petition signatures – and opponents are scrutinizing their validity – to see if there's enough support to bring the issue to voters in November.



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